Will Trump win the US election in 2020? The latest polls as President Donald Trump faces Joe Biden in November.

 

On November 7, 2016, as millions of Americans went to the polls to vote for their 45th President, Hillary Clinton had reason to be confident.

The first female presidential nominee held a lead in the majority of final polls and liberals across the country prepared to breathe a sigh of relief – Donald Trump looked set to fall one step short of the White House. Except he didn’t.

The divisive property mogul with zero political experience whose campaign had been mired with allegations of sexual misconduct and controversial views on race and immigration, had exceeded expectations, clinching the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Despite losing the popular vote, Trump narrowly won the electoral college vote.

Much of the US, and indeed the world, were left dumbstruck.

Four years on, the US go to the polls again With Trump set to take on former vice-president Joe Biden – could Trump pull off yet another shock? Here’s what polls, bookies and pundits are saying.

What are the polls saying?

Joe Biden, like Clinton, has consistently kept Donald Trump at an arm’s length in the polling stakes.

Crucially this gap has widened as the coronavirus pandemic has unfolded, with many accusing the current White House incumbent of mishandling the crisis.

Approval of his management of the pandemic only continues to decline among all Americans.

Crucially Biden appears to be winning over white seniors – who played a crucial role in handing the keys to the White House to Trump – due to his approach to the coronavirus pandemic.

In the latest national poll Biden holds a 50.5% to 42.2% lead over Trump. Forecaster fivethirtyeight meanwhile offers Biden a 69% chance of winning the US election.

Crucially for the Democrats, Biden also holds significant leads in battleground states.

Though Clinton consistently held a lead in polls over Trump, the picture was a lot less clear on a state level, with Trump ultimately clinching the electoral college votes in swing states.

The winner of the election will be decided by an electoral college vote, rather than a popular vote.

This means that each state is worth a certain amount of electoral college votes proportionate to its population, with the winner requiring 270 votes.

The candidates with the most votes in a state get all the electoral college votes, apart for Maine and Nebraska.

Biden leads in polling in Arizona (2%), Florida (5%), Michigan (6.7%), Minnesota (5.3%), Nevada (4%), New Hampshire (9.7%), Ohio (2.3%), Pennsylvania (5.7%), Virginia (11.5%) and Wisconsin (6.5%), while Trump holds slender leads in Georgia (1.1%), Iowa (1.7%) and North Carolina (0.6%), and a larger lead in Texas (3.5%).

The battles in Texas and Florida are particularly important, each state offering up 38 and 29 electoral college votes respectively….

See also  Millions of Trump-lovers in Nigeria and Africa are Upset for Opposing Ngozi Iweala — FFK

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*