An Atiku who is dissatisfied with the PDP would have been a big gain to Peter Obi, and along with him would have been big Northerners like Tambuwal and even Saraki. I was desperately praying for Wike to win, but I gave out a lot of free consultancy to the PDP, by continuously putting out my analyses of the situation on social media. The PDP saved itself from Wike, and depending on where the APC ticket goes, it is likely a straight fight between APC and PDP, with the LP having an outside chance, depending on how well the NNPP performs in the North.
An Ahmed Lawan ticket for the APC won’t carry as much weight as the Atiku ticket and a Kwakwanso ticket in the North, except for the support of Buhari. But Buhari has lost a good amount of those his secured Northern votes due to his disappointing performance in the last seven years.
His appeal to the core Northern voters is his assumed hardline against corruption and waste, as well his fundamental islamism. But, he is not on the ballot, and he has proven those who believe he will fight corruption wrong, while, Kwakwanso will deeply eat into his Muslim fundamentalists voters. Atiku will sweep all the other votes from those voters who merely believe in the North for North agenda. I doubt if Lawan has any natural voters in the North, like Atiku and Kwakwanso. He will merely get Yobe votes on his own strength and depend on Buhari and few other core Northerners supporting his ambition to garner few votes from the North.
If Atiku picks his running mate from the Southeast, then, it will be another big blow to the bloc votes we are expecting to give Peter Obi from the Southeast.
A disgruntled Tinubu will also be inclined to supporting an Atiku presidency than allowing himself to support any other candidate outside himself in the APC. Tinubu believes that the APC ticket is his entitlement and if he is denied the ticket, he will fight like a wounded lion to see to the failing of that ticket, at least to prove a point. And a Tinubu is not someone you would want to fight you.
Politics is not a game of emotions, it is a practical game. A PDP majority government is no longer as impossible as it would have been with a Wike flying the PDP flag. And retaining the status quo of APC – PDP majority is highly likely, unless a massive disruption happens. And I pray for that disruption.
Onwuasoanya FCC Jones is my name.
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