Kogidecides2019: Analysis on Kogi Governorship election outcome

PDP/APC to battle in Kogi East as the determining factor for winning

Kogi state is devided into three, Kogi Central the (Igbira’s) West the (Okuns) and East the (Igalas). Kogi central is where Yahaya Bello the incumbent Govenor (APC) comes from as Well as Akpoti Natasha of SDP and has a population of 21.4%

Kogi West is where Dino Melaye comes from and has a population of 23.6% they are the (Okun)

And Kogi East is where Engr Wada Musa of the PDP comes from and has a population of 56%, they are the (Igalas )

The people of Kogi Central where Yahaya Bello and Natasha Akpoti comes from will split their votes at say 16% for yahaya Bello 4% for Natasha and 1% for Wada

The people of Kogi west will vote for Dino who is a PDP with say 21%, automatically also voting for Musa wada as well. 2.6% might go for yahaya Bello and Natasha from this zone.

The people of Kogi East who are the Igala’s and the largest in population with over 56%. This people will vote for Wada Musa of PDP who is their son. we expect nothing less than 50% out of the 56% from this zone. Ofcourse there will always be Judas who will vote out so we leave 6% for Yahaya Bello and Natasha from this zone.

From the Analysis Above if only PDP can protect their votes very well they will carry the day overwhelmingly. The winning margin at the end of the elections should be at about PDP 72%, APC 22.6% and SDP 5.4%.

The point of concern for PDP should be the ward and LG Collation centers where votes can be canceled because soon as declarations are made there, it will always be difficult to change them at the Final Collation centre which is the INEC headquarters.

All things been equal even though it will never be the chances of Yahaya Bello returning is not even visible. PDP just need to work on bringing up their bulk votes on the early hours of the elections immediately, this will put the APC on a tight corner giving them difficulties to rig or change figures.

Don’t forget changing of figures only works before declarations are made so if the PDP works on these two areas Ward and LG Collation centers ,the possibilities of them waiting at the INEC headquarters to rig will be an exercise in futility.